Opportunity Cost of Limited Border-Crossing Services at the Temajuk–Telok Melano Corridor, Indonesia: A Defense-Economics Assessment

Economic

Abstract

Indonesia reactivated the Temajuk Border Crossing Post (PLB Temajuk) on 21 August 2026, reopening the Temajuk–Telok Melano corridor. Services remain limited to pedestrian crossings by border residents, and the post has not yet attained full customs-area status or vehicle crossings. This study estimates the opportunity cost of this limited operationalization from a defense-economics perspective. Using a desk-based secondary valuation design, we combine a relatively calibrated gravity model—benchmarked to foreign-visitor flows at PLBN Aruk—with benefit transfer, a local output multiplier, and Monte Carlo simulation (200,000 draws). At a 50% realization penetration rate, median potential visits are 7,100 per year (P10–P90: 3,000–13,600). The associated foregone tourism foreign exchange is Rp9.0 billion per year (Rp3.7–17.9 billion), local output stimulus is Rp19.4 billion (Rp7.6–42.6 billion), and potential own-source revenue (PAD) for Sambas Regency is Rp266 million (Rp110–527 million). These estimates are conditional on assumptions about the share of local-oriented crossers and the relative attractiveness of Temajuk. The findings support gradual opening, risk-based customs management, and rupiah-based cross-border payment arrangements.